Financial model review – try this at home!

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Financial model review – try this at home!

by Rickard Warnelid on March 17 2009

If you are not in a position to engage an independent model audit company to perform an independent financial model review then the following check-list may be helpful. I do not attempt to delve into high level analytical checks but rather strictly focus on algebraic and structural errors that can be easily detected and therefore avoided.

Inconsistent formulae across rows

A solid financial model should have the formulae copied across all columns. Not having consistent formulae significantly increases the risk of error in your model. Even though on face value the model may be right, the inconsistent formula makes it very hard for anyone else to update assumptions or amend the model.

The most efficient way of detecting inconsistent formulae across rows is to purchase a financial model review add-in. There are a number of different products on the market and they all have their strengths and weaknesses. I would recommend downloading a free trial before purchase to make sure that that particular add-in works for you.

If you don’t want to purchase a model review add-in then you can explore the powerful, but often overlooked, built-in Excel functions

  • ‘Trace all dependents’ (CTRL + SHIFT + ])
  • Trace all precedents (CTRL + SHIFT + [)
  • Row or Column Differences (CTRL + SHIFT + \) and (CTRL + \)

These functions are also accessible via F5 (Goto) → Special.

Complex formulae that are hard to understand

Overly complex formulae with nested IF, OFFSET, INDEX, MMULTS, ISERROR, etc, and other functions, etc, significantly increases the risk of an error in your model. This can be easily avoided by taking advantage of the many rows available splitting the formula into smaller, manageable parts.

The following is an example of what not to do:

=IF(G$4<=OpStartDate,0,SUMIF(Operations!$D$4:$AO$4,EOMONTH(G$4,IF(MOD(MONTH(G$4),3)=0,0,3-MOD(MONTH(G$4),3))),Operations!$D163:$AO163))/3

Check for unused assumptions

One very simple check to perform is to make sure that all assumptions in your assumption sheet have been used in calculations. If there are unused assumptions then there is an increased probability that you have mistakenly linked in an incorrect assumptions to flow into the model calculations.
To perform this test you could either use a spreadsheet review add-in or Excel’s built-in tracing functionality.
Sums that exclude lines that should have been included

It may sound unlikely, but one of the most common errors is SUM-functions that do not sum the right rows. Simply work through your SUM-functions to make sure that they have been coded correctly.

Review timing errors

A very efficient way of finding errors in your timing section is to simply change the timing assumptions and check it against changes in graphical representations of the model. Any unexpected spikes, troughs or unreasonable movements in outputs should be investigated. Experience has shown that Timing is a common source of errors and it is recommended that close attention to be paid to model Timing.

Mix of assumptions and calculations

A good model should have all assumptions located in a dedicated section of the model separate to the calculations. Financial model review software will have the functionality to distinguish inputs as opposed to calculations, but you can always use F5 → Special → Formulas → Numbers if you do not have one.

COMMENTS

Chris, You are certainly

Chris, You are certainly right and this highlights the need for independent verification of the integrity of a financial model. Finding your own mistakes in incorrectly applying an assumption is very hard – similar to finding your own spelling mistakes. One additional level of complexity in finding unused assumption shows up when the financial model included VBA macros. A reference to a cell/range in Excel from VBA will not show up as a dependent. This is true regardless of whether the VBA uses a direct reference (i.e. $A$5) or a range name (“TaxRate”). The risk here is that an assumption of formula is deleted in Excel as it appears to be unused when it is really critical for the successful execution of the VBA macros. From a best-practise point of view I totally agree with your point on deleting unused assumption as soon as they become redundant. There are however situations where project developers or finance departments regards the financial model as a data repository of sorts to complement other transaction documentation. In these cases it would not be practically possible to delete all unused assumptions and I would instead recommend a stricter documentation regime to clearly label data that is only kept for information purposes. Regards, Rickard

The unused assumptions entry

The unused assumptions entry is good as far as it goes, but it may contain a non sequitor. If an assumption is unused, then it is be definition unlinked. What I think I get from this suggestion is to remove currently unused assumptions so that in the future they are not mistakenly linked to in a pointing error. Another review would be to ensure that assumptions are being appropriately used. This review is harder than finding unused assumptions, since it requires more consideration than a simple answer to a question: Does it have any dependents?

Thus usefulness of the trade

Thus usefulness of the trade dependents shortcuts (Ctrl+] variants) to identify dependents on another sheet, seems to make them useless, or arguably worse than nothing. Or am I missing something? John Richter Principal Financial Mechanics

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